Predicting who signs Top 10 MLB free agents, including Mets and Yankees hauls

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So the Milwaukee Brewers are World Series champions and it will be fascinating to see if their contact-hitting, hustling, fundamentally sound style of play influences other teams this offseason, especially with a free agent class that is largely lacking in star power.

The more pressing question, of course, is when we’ll see baseball again.

A lockout on Dec. 1 is a virtual certainty, and the owners' rabid desire for a salary cap is expected to make for a long standoff in collective bargaining negotiations that could stretch into February, March, April…who knows how long.

All of which could also make for a busy November, with at least some teams likely to sign free agents before the lockout and before any potential changes that could make it more penal to add payroll.

Super-agent Scott Boras is already pushing that narrative publicly, and will be trying hard to get a deal done with Tarik Skubal before the sport goes dark.

So with that, here are my predictions for where 10 of the top free agents (actually 11, thanks to a bonus double-entry for the Mets ) will sign.

The Phillies have been trying for years, with little success, to build a bullpen that won’t fall apart in the biggest moments, most notably the postseason.

They have a dominant closer now in Jhoan Duran , but need another big piece like Morejon, one of the best left-handed relievers in the game in recent years with the Padres.

Morejon has nasty stuff. He averaged 99.4 mph with his fastball last season, struck out 106 hitters in 86 innings, and ranked in the 99th percentile of MLB pitchers, via Statcast, in chase percentage and soft contact. He’s only 27, turning 28 in February.

In a free agent class short on impact hitters, Suzuki could be the best value on the board. He consistently put up good numbers with the Chicago Cubs the last five years, hitting 26 home runs in 2026 with 31 doubles, a .270 batting average and an .841 OPS, and he plays solid defense in right field featuring a very strong arm.

The Jays, meanwhile, need to make some type of splash after falling off badly following their 2025 World Series season. Suzuki would fit in nicely in right field and perhaps offer lineup protection for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. coming off his subpar season.

After getting outbid for Luis Arraez -- more on that later -- their trade pickup last August, I think the Phillies will convince themselves that a team with an aging core could benefit from the athleticism and speed Chisholm would provide at second base.

And maybe they would be right, as Chisholm's ability remains enticing at least on the surface. Even in a down year with the Yankees, he stole 41 bases and hit 19 home runs, admittedly a long way from the 50-50-year he predicted back in February, but still productive.

On the other hand, signing Chisholm might be a mistake if he plays with the same lack of awareness he did with the Yanks last season, whether it be making that ill-advised throw on a DP turn in the postseason or playing second base with a lollipop in his mouth.

In any case, the dichotomy between talent and awareness will make it fascinating to see just what Chisholm's market is in the coming weeks. The only near-certainty is the Yankees won’t re-sign him.

Lowe is one of the more underrated players in the game, coming off a very good season as the second baseman for the Pittsburgh Pirates in which he mashed to the tune of 35 home runs and 29 doubles, and hit .260 with a .493 slugging percentage and an .824 OPS.

Lowe was good defensively as well, ranking in the 96th percentile in defensive run value, via Statcast.

The Red Sox are at least one impact bat away from getting over the hump in the postseason, as demonstrated against the Yankees in the Wild Card Series. Lowe could be that guy for them.

It might be tempting for the Mets to take another shot with Peralta, after he rediscovered his dominance with the Tampa Bay Rays post-trade deadline, but that’s way too much of a gamble.

It didn’t work with the Mets for a reason, whether it was a failure on the part of the coaches to figure out his mechanics or Peralta underperforming under high expectations in New York, or some combination of those factors.

But I do believe he’ll be pursued heavily, and the Padres desperately need more quality pitching if they’re ever going to get through the postseason and win a championship -- especially if Michael King leaves as a free agent this time.

Here’s another chance for the Yankees to make themselves a more well-rounded team, adding one of the better offensive catchers in the game.

Jeffers, who turns 30 next June, has put up above-average OPS+ numbers for the last four seasons with the Minnesota Twins. Injuries limited him to 92 games in 2026, but he had his best offensive season, hitting .256 with a .416 slugging percentage and an .814 OPS.

Scouts consider him to be slightly below-average defensively but not a butcher behind the plate. He hits right-handed, so the Yanks could still give Austin Wells a decent number of at-bats against right-handed pitching.

This feels like a move the Yanks really need to make. For a team that strikes out too much and never seems to get enough timely hitting in the postseason, Arraez offers an obvious solution as perhaps the best pure contact hitter in the majors.

And he improved his defense dramatically last season, ranking high in various defensive metrics as a second baseman. That, plus his bat, makes him a better option at the position than Anthony Volpe .

Arraez, who sports a .316 career batting average, also added some slug to his contact bat, with a career-high .419 slugging percentage to go with hitting .310 last season. And he only struck out 28 times in 655 plate appearances, putting him in the 100th percentile among all major leaguers in strikeout and swing-and-miss percentage.

The Yankees seemingly have to try something different in October to win their first championship since 2009. Arraez, who turns 30 in April, is an intriguing option.

Sato is a bit of a gamble, with his high strikeout total, but he was the Triple Crown winner in Japan this year, making enough contact to hit .307 with big power, and offers the most potential impact of any position player on the market.

David Stearns scouted him in person, as he did Munetaka Murakami last year. He was scared off, as was just about every MLB team, by Murakami’s strikeouts, but may be more convinced to sign Sato after Murakami put up big power numbers with the Chicago White Sox.

Sato has mostly been a third baseman who would presumably be asked to move to first base, and after all the problems the Mets had playing non-first basemen at the position last year, it's not a perfect fit. But his bat is worth the gamble, with a safety net of sorts in the possibility of Bo Bichette moving to first if necessary.

We know Stearns is all about value. I believe he’ll convince Steve Cohen there is more value in signing two front-of-the-rotation starters such as King and Holmes than paying for Tarik Skubal alone.

And certainly there is an argument to be made for that. Holmes was outstanding for the Mets last season before a line drive broke his fibula before he was eventually traded at the deadline, while King showed both dominance and durability in pitching a career-high 185 innings with the Padres.

The counter to that is neither is as good as Skubal at his best -- yet they’re good enough to win a championship with the right pieces around them. And neither is likely to command the type of long-term deal it will take to sign Skubal.

If you say the best plan is for the Mets to sign Skubal plus either King or Holmes, well, yes, absolutely. But realistically that may be too much even for Cohen, especially if the Mets intend to add to their bullpen and position player group.

Also notable is that because King was given a qualifying offer last winter before re-signing with the Padres, and Holmes was traded this season, neither can be given a qualifying offer, meaning that signing them wouldn’t cost the Mets any draft picks.

Finally, I think Stearns likes the idea of bringing Holmes back after trading him for Jefferson Rojas , an enticing prospect. It’s making the most of an asset, a good look for a president of baseball operations who is all too aware about the need to win over disenchanted Mets fans.

After a quick exit in the postseason, the Cubs have more than $100 million coming off their payroll, a glaring need for an ace, and the added incentive of knowing their neighbors to the north, the rival Brewers, just won the World Series.

All of which I believe will add up to them outbidding the Mets, the Dodgers, and anybody else who pursues Skubal, even if it means going to eight years at $45 million or so per season.

Cohen, of course, will only be outbid if he chooses to draw a line on what he’ll pay, but I believe Stearns will convince him to do just that.