Predicting off-season contracts for MLB's top 50 free agents

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TORONTO – Predicting free agency is never easy, especially in a year where the off-season’s expected to be interrupted by a work stoppage and a new collective bargaining agreement.

But why let that stop us from trying? As MLB’s off-season gets started, it’s time to share some predictions for the contracts the top 50 free agents will secure this off-season.

First, a couple caveats. For starters, remember that these are predictions rather than recommendations. And while I took this exercise seriously and spoke with people in the industry before putting these numbers down, it’s mainly meant to be a fun way to look ahead. Having spent years covering contracts closely as a writer at MLB Trade Rumors, I know how humbling these predictions can be. If I get even a handful of these exactly right, I’ll take it.

But again, why let that stop us?

Big picture, the free agent class appears weaker than usual. Combined with the uncertainty over the new CBA, I predict that we’ll see fewer long-term deals than we did a year ago. It stands to reason that teams will shy away from extremely long-term commitments where possible, and this class isn’t so tempting that teams will throw money around in spite of themselves.

Given those factors, I’m forecasting slightly less spending overall – a total of $2.55 billion for the top 50 players compared to $2.66 billion for the top 50 last year. Within that, there should be plenty of shorter-term commitments at reasonably high AAVs, including a slight uptick in two-year deals. And I anticipate lots of spending on relievers.

Yet I'm forecasting just 16 deals of three years or more, down from 20 a year ago and just six deals of $100 million, down from nine a year ago. Without any further preamble, let’s get to the players:

Seven years, $357 million ($51 million AAV) with an opt-out after 2029

Skubal is well positioned to set a new record for pitchers, surpassing Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325 million deal and Gerrit Cole’s $324 million contract. A player option would sweeten this for Skubal, who should land the biggest contract of the off-season by a significant margin. I debated going with a longer deal at a lower AAV, but ultimately settled on seven years at a massive annual number with the Mets seen by many as frontrunners.

2. RHP Freddy Peralta

Five years, $140 million ($28 million AAV)

Despite a slow start to his walk year, Peralta rebounded with the Rays and posted a 2.95 ERA in the playoffs. Still just 30 years old, he’s well positioned to land a lucrative, long-term deal.

Five years, $120 million ($24 million AAV)

His track record’s stellar and he projects to continue hitting at a high level for years to come. Not a great defender to begin with, he’d very likely be a DH by the end of a four or five-year deal, but that’s not going to stop teams from showing real interest, with the Blue Jays expected to be among his suitors.

Five years, $115 million ($23 million AAV)

King landed a three-year, $75 million deal last winter before setting a career high in innings and opting out in anticipation of an even bigger deal. This would essentially be the 2026 version of the near-identical deals Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray signed five years ago before the last lockout.

5. 3B/OF Teruaki Sato

Five years, $115 million ($23 million AAV)

The error bars are bigger on players from foreign leagues, and there are valid questions about Sato’s swing-and-miss and third-base defence. At the same time, where else are you finding elite power like this? And for a 27-year-old, no less. Executives expect Sato to land at least a four-year deal, and his AAV should be higher than fellow NPB stars Kazuma Okamoto ($15 million), Munetaka Murakami ($17 million) and Masataka Yoshida ($18 million).

6. LHP Trevor Rogers

Four years, $100 million ($25 million AAV) with a club option for 2031

This was one of the most challenging predictions to make as he’s young and talented without the long track record we’d typically associate with $100 million pitchers. But as Rogers enters his age-29 season with a lifetime 3.88 ERA and nearly one strikeout per inning, he's a candidate for one of the bigger deals of the winter.

7. LHRP Adrian Morejon

Four years, $92 million ($23 million AAV)

If there’s an overarching theory to my predictions, it’s that relievers will keep getting a bigger share of the money — as they should, considering their outsized contributions in October.

Morejon leads that group because his stuff and results are both… incredible. This prediction may still be a bit of a reach, but any GM would covet Morejon, who showed this post-season that he’s capable of handling multi-inning relief appearances with the season on the line. Some might even try to stretch him out as a starter.

Beyond the very top of the market, late-inning lefties like Alex Vesia, Gregory Soto, Sean Newcomb, A.J. Minter and Gregory Soto all have shots at multi-year deals. In fact, lefty relief is one area of the market that’s actually quite deep this year. And further to that point, pitch-to-contact relievers like Stephen Okert and Jonathan Loaisiga have a chance to follow the Tyler Rogers model of getting paid because they suppress hard contact so well.

8. OF Randy Arozarena

three years, $90 million ($30 million AAV) with an opt-out after 2027

I'm not quite as bullish on Arozarena's market given his defensive questions and diminishing bat speed. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him land a deal worth $100 million or more, but I’m forecasting a make-good deal that’s a scaled-down version of the contract Bo Bichette landed with the Mets.

Four years, $76 million ($19 million AAV) with an opt-out after 2028

Even beyond Sato, it should be a strong year for NPB stars, with Taira considered a high-upside arm and Hiromi Itoh well positioned to land a multi-year deal, too.

Nicknamed the fire hydrant for his short but robust frame, Taira has triple-digit velocity and experience as a starter and a reliever. Expect MLB teams to pursue him as a starter in the hopes that his riding fastball and deep arsenal lead to immediate success.

He’s clearly going to surpass Tatsuya Imai’s three-year, $54 million deal. Adding one year and a bit of AAV doesn’t seem too wild for a pitcher with Taira’s upside.

10. 1B/OF Jake Bauers

Three years, $73.5 million ($24.5 million AAV)

Teams try to avoid recency bias in their contract offers but I still expect the likes of Bauers, Tyler Mahle and Nick Martinez to turn strong October showings into multi-year contracts. On the other end of the spectrum, there will be surely be some bounce-back contracts mixed in and I'd include Jazz Chisholm Jr., Casey Mize and Daulton Varsho in that mix after walk years that didn’t fully go according to plan.

11. 2B Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Three years, $72 million ($24 million AAV) with an opt-out after 2027

Three years, $72 million ($24 million AAV)

Three years, $66 million ($22 million AAV)

Two years, $54 million ($27 million AAV)

15. RHRP David Bednar

Three years, $51 million ($17 million AAV)

Three years, $48 million ($16 million AAV)

Two years, $46 million ($23 million AAV)

19. RHP Nick Martinez

Two years, $44 million ($22 million AAV)

Three years, $42 million ($14 million AAV)

Two years, $42 million ($21 million AAV) with an opt-out after 2027

Two years, $40 million ($20 million AAV)

23. RHP Michael Soroka

Two years, $37 million ($18.5 million AAV) with an opt-out after 2027

Two years, $34 million ($17 million AAV)

25. 2B Gleyber Torres

Two years, $34 million ($17 million AAV)

Two years, $32 million ($16 million AAV)

28. LHP Foster Griffin

Two years, $30 million ($15 million AAV)

29. LHP David Peterson

Two years, $30 million ($15 million AAV)

30. RHRP Bryan Abreu

Two years, $30 million ($15 million AAV)

31. RHRP Evan Phillips

Two years, $30 million ($15 million AAV)

32. C Tyler Stephenson

Two years, $28 million ($14 million AAV)

33. LHRP Stephen Okert

Two years, $27 million ($13.5 million AAV) with a club option for 2029

34. RHRP Jonathan Loaisiga

Two years, $27 million ($13.5 million AAV) with a club option for 2029

35. LHRP A.J. Minter

Two years, $24 million ($12 million AAV)

37. RHP Kevin Gausman

One year, $23 million ($23 million AAV)

38. LHRP Gregory Soto

Two years, $22 million ($11 million AAV)

39. LHRP Sean Newcomb

Two years, $22 million ($11 million AAV)

40. LHP Shota Imanaga

One year, $18 million ($18 million AAV)

42. RHP Nick Pivetta

One year, $15 million ($15 million AAV)

43. OF Daulton Varsho

One year, $15 million ($15 million AAV)

44. OF Trent Grisham

One year, $15 million ($15 million AAV)

46. IF J.P. Crawford

One year, $15 million ($15 million AAV)

One year, $14 million ($14 million AAV)

48. RHRP Raisel Iglesias

One year, $14 million ($14 million AAV)

49. LHP Matthew Boyd

One year, $13.5 million ($13.5 million AAV)

One year, $13 million ($13 million AAV)