2026 World Series Predictions: Rays vs. Brewers picks, MVP favorites and biggest X-factors
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After six months of regular season baseball and multiple rounds of the postseason, the best teams in their respective leagues are set to clash in the 2026 MLB World Series. The Rays and Brewers will play Game 1 on Friday night (8 p.m. ET) at American Family Field in Milwaukee.
In addition to fielding similar styles and smart front offices, the Rays and Brewers share another thing in common: Neither have won a World Series before. We’re going to see history either way.
Check out our thoughts on how the series will play out.
Regular season record :
Rays (98-64 - 1st in AL East)
Brewers (103-59 - 1st in NL Central)
Regular season run differential:
Rays (169 - 22nd in MLB)
Brewers (154 - 29th in MLB)
Rays (3.72 - 7th in MLB)
Brewers (3.51 - 2nd in MLB)
Rays: ALDS - Swept Yankees in three games, ALCS - Defeated Guardians in six games
Brewers: NLDS - Defeated Padres in four games, NLCS - Swept Dodgers in four games
Given the analytical nature of these teams, I think the X-factor will be something seemingly small in scope. We could talk about bullpen management or which team hits the most homers, but I think the answer will be controlling the running game. On the season, Tampa Bay was second in steals and Milwaukee was fifth. Liam Hicks was 40th out of 66 catchers with a 20 percent caught stealing rate, while William Contreras was 19th with a 28 percent rate. Whichever catcher can control the running game more is going to give their team a big head start. - Eric Samulski
Can the Brewers get more out of their rotation? Milwaukee’s bullpen has been outstanding during their postseason run, but they run the risk of overexposure the longer the series goes. No Brewers starting pitcher has gotten an out in the sixth inning so far this postseason. The team’s best pitcher — and the best pitcher in baseball this season — Jacob Misiorowski , didn’t make it through five innings in either of his two postseason starts. They’ll need more help from their starters in order to win it all. - D.J. Short
The Rays’ unheralded left-handed relief duo of Ian Seymour and Cam Booser need to remain up to the task. Those two thus far have allowed three runs over 12 innings in the postseason (by comparison, the team’s top right-handed setup men, Tyler Wells and Kevin Kelly, have combined to pitch just 5 2/3 innings and give up five runs). The Rays have no left-handed starters, and the Brewers figure to regularly start six left-handed bats. It’s unclear if the Rays will have Garrett Cleavinger available as a reinforcement; he missed the final three weeks of the regular season with a forearm issue, returned for the ALDS but then was pulled from the ALCS roster. - Matthew Pouliot
Easy answer, but it’s Freddy Peralta . He’s turned his season around after the trade from the Mets, including an ALCS showing which led to MVP honors, but keeping it going in the World Series against his former team would be the ultimate exclamation point. - D.J. Short
Christian Yelich ‘s Hall of Fame case has stalled, as he turned in a career-worst season in hitting .235/.325/.378 for the NL champs. Leading the Brewers to a World Series win here would be just the thing to get it going again, and after sitting twice against lefties in the NLCS, he should be a lineup fixture against the Rays’ right-handers. It’s just not clear how capable he is at this point, but he has managed to go 7-for-24 with three RBI to date this October. He’s a career .232/.351/.320 hitter with two homers and six RBI in 34 postseason games. - Matthew Pouliot
The answer has to be Freddy Peralta , no? He’s already recouped a lot of value after his rough beginning of the season with the Mets. Entering free agency this offseason, Peralta could get a windfall with another strong playoff series. - Eric Samulski
I’ll go with Sal Frelick . He had some big hits in the NLDS before going hitless in the team’s sweep over the Dodgers, but between his elite contact ability, speed, and defense, he does all the little things that can lead to big moments. - D.J. Short
Brandon Woodruff would be the best story, but that seems especially unlikely. Let’s go with Andrew Vaughn , who probably won’t start any World Series games but will have some big at-bats against lefties in the seventh and eighth innings. He hit .336/.421/.517 in 133 plate appearances versus southpaws this season. - Matthew Pouliot
Garrett Mitchell . Mitchell had a bit of a breakout season and hit a big home run against the Dodgers, but he’s not exactly a household name. The outfielder has very loud tools though. He’s one of 24 qualified hitters in all of baseball who’s 70th percentile or better in both barrel rate and chase rate. I think he gets a couple of big hits in this series. - Eric Samulski
Brewers in five games: The Brewers are the better team on paper, and they just have so many options to combat a Rays lineup that isn’t exactly tearing it up this month. Though Tampa Bay has gone 7-2 against the Yankees and Guardians, the team is batting just .232/.293/.356, with very little help coming from the bottom of the lineup. - Matthew Pouliot
Brewers in six games: The Rays are a worthy opponent and do some similar things well, but the Brewers boast a more balanced roster and do the little things better, such as controlling the running game. That will be the difference here. - D.J. Short
Brewers in six games: Sometimes picking the best team in baseball is just the path. I know the Brewers have come up short before, and I know the Rays are a trendy pick, but the Brewers have been so good all year. I think they have one more series in them. - Eric Samulski
Brice Turang was the Brewers’ best position player this season, and he had an NLCS MVP argument after hitting .364/.563/.727 against the Dodgers. He’s the pick. - Matthew Pouliot
William Contreras . He’s been great this postseason (.367/.457/.700) and continues to set the tone for this team with his enthusiasm and contributions behind the plate. It’s easy to envision him coming up with a clutch hit and providing a lasting image as he runs from home plate to the mound as the Brewers celebrate their first World Series championship. - D.J. Short
Jackson Chourio will be the MVP. I predicted that earlier in the postseason, so I can’t back down now. - Eric Samulski